A supermajority (87%) of America's small business owners say they'd consider closing if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House in November. Only 1.2% say the same if former President Trump is elected. This deep canyon of fear over a Harris presidency is among the stunning findings of the October 2024 Freedom Economy Index survey of 80,000 small business owners, a joint project of PublicSquare and RedBalloon.

"I'm just not going to sell a twenty-dollar sandwich," said Danielle, a restaurant owner who is among the respondents who have dealt with crippling inflation over the past four years. "If Harris wins, I'm just done. I can't live through this anymore."

Key Findings:

• Stark Economic Choices: 83% say they plan to expand and invest in their business if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, and 81% would consider hiring more employees. Only 1.1% say they would plan to expand if Harris wins, and just half a percent would consider hiring new employees.
  
• Economic Slowdown is Harder on Women: 58% of women business owners say their revenues were down over the past 60 days, versus just 50% of male owned businesses. And women business owners are 7 percentage points more likely than their male counterparts to consider "reducing their staff" if Harris wins and 8% more likely to "prepare for greater inflation."
  
• Grinch Christmas Expectations: Over half of small business owners expect sales for the coming Christmas season to either decline (28%) or be flat (25%) from last year.
  
• Frosty Hiring Trend: Small businesses are pausing hiring plans, pending the outcome of the election. 76.6% say they are neither hiring nor reducing staff, up from 53.6% a year ago. Only 9.5% of employers say they are hiring to expand, while 9.7% say they are planning to reduce staffing.
  
• Recessionary Forecast: 57.4% of small business owners believe the US is headed toward recession, and another 32.8% say there's "too much uncertainty" to know which way the economy is going. Less than 10% believe we'll avoid a recession. Additionally, nearly two-thirds (63.2%) say their opinion about the direction of the US economy has soured in the past month. Inflation Still a Factor: 8 in 10 small business owners say their supplier prices increased "substantially" or "somewhat" in the past 30 days, and 88% say inflation continues to be a "major problem.
  
• An F for the Federal Reserve: 84% of small business owners give Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve an "F" grade of "poor" or "very poor" for their handling of inflation spike. Small business owners are also split on expectations of the Fed cutting rates again before the end of the year, with 53% believing it'll happen, and 47% expecting the Fed to keep rates unchanged.
  

Key Quotes:

"These numbers are simply stunning. Small businesses desperately want to avoid a repeat of the last four years." – Michael Seifert, CEO of PublicSquare.

"We're seeing this effect in the job market right now, with employers holding their breath to see who wins in November." – Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon.

"The whole Kamala narrative is that women support her, but when you look at those women who have to run a business and meet payroll, there's a stark vote of no-confidence." – Michael Seifert, CEO of PublicSquare.

"Job seekers may end up with a lump of coal in their stockings. If retailers are feeling this subdued about the coming Christmas season, we may see a less-than-robust seasonal hiring wave." – Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon.

Sample of Verbatim Responses:

"Inflation has outpaced my company's growth for 3 years straight. I will not survive on this trajectory.""[Because of inflation] we are essentially functioning as a charity, providing client services and jobs for 20 employees. This is obviously unsustainable, as we need to pay our bills and can't continue working well beyond full-time for nothing."

"If Kamala wins, our taxes, insurance, and vendor costs, which have already increased dramatically year-over-year under Biden, will explode, eliminating all hope of keeping our doors opening."

"It's been too long of a really bad economy and the public sentiment is worse than I have ever seen."

"I expect to continue to see a decline until folks don't have to be as tight with their money."

Access the full report here.

Methodology:

The small business version of the Freedom Economy Index is a quarterly survey of nearly 80,000 small business owners - one of the largest of its kind. These opinions reflect the opinions and experiences from those on the front-lines of the US economy. The survey has a 4% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

PublicSquare Is America's largest nonwoke marketplace app with over 70,000 businesses and over 1.6 million active consumer members. They empower the consumers to put purpose behind every purchase, from daily essentials to non-woke restaurants in their area.

Founded In 2021, RedBalloon has quickly become America's largest woke-free job board, connecting employers and employees who prioritize a positive workplace culture free from the divisiveness of cancel-culture mandates.

To schedule an interview with PublicSquare CEO Michael Seifert and RedBalloon CEO Andrew Crapuchettes, contact Isaac Lopez at (208) 997–8013 or isaac@redballoon.work.