Streaming TV platform Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) reported Q3 CY2024 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 16.5% year on year to $1.06 billion. Guidance for next quarter’s revenue was also optimistic at $1.14 billion at the midpoint, 2.7% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP loss of $0.06 per share was also 82% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Roku (ROKU) Q3 CY2024 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.06 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.02 billion (4.6% beat)
- EPS: -$0.06 vs analyst estimates of -$0.33 ($0.27 beat)
- EBITDA: $98.2 million vs analyst estimates of $47.33 million (107% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2024 is $1.14 billion at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $1.11 billion
- EBITDA guidance for Q4 CY2024 is $30 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $39.32 million
- Gross Margin (GAAP): 45.2%, down from 47.7% in the same quarter last year
- Operating Margin: -3.4%, up from -38.4% in the same quarter last year
- EBITDA Margin: 9.2%, up from 4.8% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 14%, up from 2.3% in the previous quarter
- Active Accounts: 85.5 million, up 9.7 million year on year
- Market Capitalization: $11.06 billion
Company Overview
Spun out from Netflix, Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) makes hardware players that offer access to various online streaming TV services.
Consumer Subscription
Consumers today expect goods and services to be hyper-personalized and on demand. Whether it be what music they listen to, what movie they watch, or even finding a date, online consumer businesses are expected to delight their customers with simple user interfaces that magically fulfill demand. Subscription models have further increased usage and stickiness of many online consumer services.
Sales Growth
Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its business quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Over the last three years, Roku grew its sales at a solid 15.2% compounded annual growth rate. This is a useful starting point for our analysis.
This quarter, Roku reported year-on-year revenue growth of 16.5%, and its $1.06 billion of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 4.6%. Management is currently guiding for a 15.8% year-on-year increase next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 11.7% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last three years. Still, this projection is above average for the sector and shows the market sees some success for its newer products and services.
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Active Accounts
User Growth
As a subscription-based app, Roku generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Over the last two years, Roku’s active accounts, a key performance metric for the company, increased by 15.1% annually to 85.5 million in the latest quarter. This growth rate is among the fastest of any consumer internet business and indicates its platform's popularity is exploding. 
In Q3, Roku added 9.7 million active accounts, leading to 12.8% year-on-year growth. The quarterly print was lower than its two-year result, suggesting its new initiatives aren’t accelerating user growth just yet.
Revenue Per User
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is a critical metric to track for consumer internet businesses like Roku because it measures how much the average user spends. ARPU is also a key indicator of how valuable its users are (and can be over time).
Roku’s ARPU fell over the last two years, averaging 2.6% annual declines. This isn’t great, but the increase in active accounts is more relevant for assessing long-term business potential. We’ll monitor the situation closely; if Roku tries boosting ARPU by taking a more aggressive approach to monetization, it’s unclear whether users can continue growing at the current pace. 
This quarter, Roku’s ARPU clocked in at $41.10. It was flat year on year, worse than the change in its active accounts.
Key Takeaways from Roku’s Q3 Results
We were impressed by how significantly Roku blew past analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. We were also excited its revenue outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its EBITDA forecast for next quarter missed and its revenue growth stalled. Overall, this quarter was mixed. The market seemed to focus on the negatives, especially the below-expectations guidance, and the stock traded down 5.2% to $73.53 immediately following the results.
Is Roku an attractive investment opportunity right now? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.
