Washington will soon debate sending billions more to Ukraine to assist its war effort. Lawmakers may want to first conduct a reality check on where Russia stands in this nine-month war and on Putin’s decision calculus. This suggests that U.S. funding will not produce quick results, may not produce any results or may also produce very bad results for America and Ukraine.
This is how, when wishful thinking is set aside, things actually look:
The Battlefield
Multiple areas across Ukraine are still under Russian assault, even as Ukrainian forces are gaining momentum with an effective counter-offensive, pushing to reclaim territories captured by Russia. On Friday, special units of Ukraine’s armed forces entered the strategic city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, following the retreat of the Russian troops as directed by the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. As Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy was championing another victory, the Kremlin warned that Kherson’s status didn’t change, despite the retreat, claiming that the city was still ‘part of Russia.’
The Russians are unlikely to permanently abandon Kherson or any of the three regions that Moscow recently "annexed." The Russian ground forces who assumed defensive positions on the left bank of the Dniepr River, will probably not engage in a mano-a-mano battle with Ukrainians, having lost so many men and so much military hardware. The withdrawal is a potential ruse to lure Ukrainian troops into a radioactive chamber. Russian Spetsnaz operatives reportedly left a nasty message on a door of one of the buildings. Addressed to Ukrainians, the message warned that this was "the territory of the Russian Empire," that Putin was "our and your Czar" and that the Russian troops went "on vacation."
PUTIN’S CYBER ARMAGEDDON DOCTRINE SEEKS TO EXPAND RUSSIA'S OFFENSE BEYOND BATTLEFIELD
For weeks, Moscow has been accusing Kyiv of planning to use a "dirty bomb," also called a radiological dispersal device (RDD), an improvised nuclear device containing dynamite laced with radioactive powder. Unlike traditional nuclear bombs, RDDs have low military value but produce panic and terror in the opposing force and population. They cause severe burns, irradiation sickness, and they contaminate food and water. Driving Ukrainians out of the region by contamination would be consistent with Russia’s most recent military doctrine, which envisions use of radiological, chemical and biological warfare for "defensive" purposes. The Russians have a special military branch, Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces (RKhBZ), that are trained in decontamination and clean up.
A New Strategy of Indirect Action
Russia has all but exhausted its conventional combat power, having fired around 4,000 missiles and, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, have lost some 100,000 personnel to death or injury. Morale is low. Special units are sent to the front lines to shoot retreating soldiers and deserters. Multiple Russian commanders have failed to secure victory.
However, despite Washington’s expectations, Putin will not abandon the fight. His regime views the stakes as existential for him and for Russia. Moscow wants Ukraine to remain part of its strategic security perimeter, on which it relied for centuries. Putin will continue to enforce his version of the Monroe Doctrine to keep NATO troops and influence out of a country that has a 1400-mile border with Russia.
FIVE REASONS WHY BIDEN MUST MOVE TO DE-ESCALATE THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR NOW
Under the new "asymmetric" strategy, Moscow is targeting critical infrastructure to leave Ukrainians without water, electricity and heat as winter approaches. Missile and drone strikes on Kyiv’s electrical grid have left half a million homes without power. Local authorities are mulling evacuation plans should the city become unlivable.
Forty percent of the country’s energy infrastructure has been crippled, and multiple industries have incurred devastating cyber strikes. Loss of power will result in lack of water, causing sewage problems that will spread disease. In late October, Ukraine’s intelligence services uncovered Russia’s plot to blow up the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam to trigger a massive flood in southern Ukraine. Couple that with a dirty bomb in Kherson, and a large swath of the country will become an environmental disaster. The main target in this phase of war is the population, its psychological state and its will to fight.
Putin’s Health and Regime Stability
Endless rumors abound about Putin’s deteriorating physical and mental condition – anything from thyroid to pancreatic cancer, to Parkinson’s, a mysterious mental illness caused by COVID-related isolation, and more. It is impossible, even for U.S. intelligence, to assess Putin’s health with high accuracy. Putin takes extreme measures – including having his security personnel collect his excrement and urine when he travels - to safeguard information about his health. There is no credible evidence Putin has a chronic condition like cancer. Instead, Putin appears "entirely too healthy," as CIA Director William Burns recently assessed.
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Two weeks ago, the Russian strongman put on a three-hour performance, including a speech and Q&A, at the annual international "Valdai" conference hosted by Russia. Putin was lucid, forceful, confident and looked healthy. There is no credible evidence suggesting the imminent collapse of Putin’s regime, his ouster or forced retirement into a sanatorium.
What the future holds
Putin is preparing for the long haul and even an all-out war, anticipating NATO intervention. Moscow has mobilized additional 318,000 men and mandated basic military training in high school. It has expanded military cooperation with Iran and North Korea to replenish its depleting weapons supply. Russia is standing up bomb shelters, training police in wartime protocols and conducting emergency evacuation drills.
The Biden administration’s solution to the Russia-Ukraine problem has been to hit Russia with more sanctions, deprive another Russian oligarch of his yacht or palace and send billions in aid to Ukraine. This is naïve and simplistic. The question of control over the post-Soviet space has been festering since the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the balance of power in Eurasia has been contested for centuries. So victory is not around the corner, nor will it be defined by President Biden. That the Washington establishment is dragging America into yet another geopolitical experiment as Ukrainians are being slaughtered and their country ruined is irresponsible and dangerous.
We are dealing with a nuclear power that is predisposed for the worst-case scenario thinking, and it will invoke the worst case before it accepts defeat in Ukraine.
