Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), which owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, reported fiscal 2024 second-quarter results. The company easily surpassed the analysts' EPS and revenue estimates in the reported quarter.

For the second quarter, CMG’s EPS of $0.34 beat the consensus estimate by $0.02, and its revenue of $2.97 billion was higher than the analyst estimates. The company continued its stellar earnings history, beating the consensus EPS estimate in each of the trailing four quarters.

However, CMG’s stock took a significant hit in the last three months, dropping around 12% despite the recently executed 50-for-1 stock split of its common stock. The company also underperformed compared to other industry players like Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI), which is up 5.4%; Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR), up 3.5%; and CAVA Group, Inc., up 27.1%.

The recent stock decline was mainly due to an online customer backlash over claims that CMG had reduced its portion sizes while increasing prices. Although the management acted quickly and acknowledged raising prices to offset inflation and higher input costs, the explanation could not ease dissatisfaction. Also, wage inflation and higher costs across most commodities and categories continue to propel costs.

Shares of CMG gained 10.1% over the past month and 46.8% over the past year to close its last trading session at $55.63. However, the stock has declined marginally from the previous session.

During the quarter, CMG opened 52 new company-operated restaurants with 46 locations including a Chipotlane, and one international licensed restaurant coming to a total of over 3,500 restaurants as of June 30, 2024 in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Kuwait.

Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO of Chipotle, commented, "The second quarter was outstanding as successful brand marketing, including the return of Chicken Al Pastor, drove strong demand to our restaurants. Our focus and training around throughput paid off as we were able to meet the stronger demand trends with terrific service and speed, driving over 8% transaction growth in the quarter."

According to the company's full-year 2024 outlook, CMG expects restaurant sales growth in the mid to high-single-digit range. Also, it expects 285 to 315 new restaurant openings with over 80% having a Chipotlane.

Let’s look at factors that could influence CMG’s performance in the upcoming months.

Mixed Financials

For the second quarter that ended June 30, 2024, CMG’s total revenue increased 18.2% year-over-year to $2.97 billion, while its delivery service revenue growth was comparatively slower to $18.20 million. The company’s income from operations of $586.05 million indicates growth of 35.7% year-over-year.

Also, the company’s adjusted net income and adjusted EPS came in at $462.99 million and $0.34, indicating growth of 31.9% and 36% from the prior year’s quarter, respectively.

Positive Historical Growth

CMG’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 15.9% over the past three years, while its EBITDA improved at a CAGR of 30.8%. Its EBIT increased at a CAGR of 36.6% over the same period, while the company's net income and EPS grew at respective CAGRs of 34% and 35.2% over the same time frame.

Furthermore, the company’s total assets and levered free cash flow increased at CAGRs of 12.2% and 68.1% over the same timeframe, respectively.

Favorable Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect CMG’s revenue for the third quarter (ending September 2024) to come in at $2.81 billion, indicating an increase of 13.8% year-over-year. The consensus EPS estimate of $0.25 for the same period reflects a 10.2% year-over-year improvement. Further, the company topped the consensus EPS estimates in all of the trailing four quarters.

For the fiscal year 2024, the company’s revenue and EPS are anticipated to grow 14.8% and 21.5% year-over-year to $11.33 billion and $1.09, respectively. In addition, Street expects its revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2025 to grow 13.6% and 18.9% from the prior year to $12.87 billion and $1.30, respectively.

Stretched Valuation

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, CMG is currently trading at 51.16x, 229.1% higher than the industry average of 15.55x. Also, the stock’s forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales of 6.98x and 6.74x are considerably higher than the industry average of 1.23x and 0.88x, respectively.

Additionally, the stock’s forward EV/EBITDA and Price/Cash Flow of 35.40x and 36.97x are 257.2% and 269.2% higher than the industry averages of 9.91x and 10.01x, respectively.

POWR Ratings Reflect Uncertainty

CMG’s mixed fundamentals are reflected in its POWR Ratings. The stock has an overall rating of C, translating to a Neutral in our proprietary system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by considering 118 different factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.

Our proprietary rating system also evaluates each stock based on eight distinct categories. CMG has an F grade for Value, consistent with its elevated valuation. Also, the stock has a C for Momentum justified by the stock trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $56.44 and $54.30, respectively.

CMG is ranked #23 among the 41 stocks in the Restaurants industry.

Beyond what I have stated above, we have also given CMG grades for Growth, Stability, Sentiment, and Quality. Get access to all the CMG ratings here.

Bottom Line

CMG continues to widen its business scale. During the second quarter, the company opened 52 new company-operated restaurants in 46 locations, and with its menu experiments and diversification, CMG is catching the attention of more and more customers. However, it continues to grapple with inflation affecting its produce prices, slower delivery services growth, and rising competition.

Given CMG’s mixed financials and elevated valuation, waiting for a better entry point in this stock seems prudent.

Stocks to Consider Instead of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

Given its near-term uncertain prospects, the odds of CMG outperforming in the weeks and months ahead are compromised. However, there are many industry peers with much more impressive POWR Ratings. So, consider these A (Strong Buy) or B (Buy) stocks from the Restaurants industry instead:

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM)

Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NATH)

Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. (RAVE)

For exploring more A and B-rated restaurants stocks, click here.

What To Do Next?

43 year investment veteran, Steve Reitmeister, has just released his 2024 market outlook along with trading plan and top 11 picks for the year ahead.

2024 Stock Market Outlook >

CMG shares were trading at $55.64 per share on Friday morning, up $0.01 (+0.02%). Year-to-date, CMG has gained 21.65%, versus a 18.62% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Rajkumari started her career as a writer but gradually shifted her focus to financial journalism, leveraging her educational background in Commerce. Fascinated by the interplay of business and economic shifts in equities, she aspires to evolve as an analyst. With a knack for simplifying complex financial concepts, her mission is to empower investors with insights that lead to profitable decisions.

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