The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 15-Oct-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.The bulls seize controlThe S&P 500 printed a bullish reversal last week. It began with a decline that was halted at the 20 dma and that’s just above a large price gap, followed by an outside reversal day when it exhibited a bullish engulfing pattern. The bullish reversal was confirmed when the index rose and filled a price gap that was acting as resistance. The market action was a test for both bulls and bears. Gap fills, and how quickly they are filled, are a sign of the strength of the underlying trend. The filled upper gap is a signal that the bulls are seizing control of the tape once again.
The full post can be found here.